Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
Picture
1. Impact
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-31895231
2. Description of the event
Different estimates on minimum pressure and maximum winds presented at http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below shows the operational TC plumes (ENS+HRES) for Pam.
TC Metgrams from Pam (Operational)
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3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below show the strike probability of tropical storms for the week 9-15 March.
Strike probability for tropical storms
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The next set of plots are normalised tropical cyclone energy for the 9-15 March. The forecast from 26 February and onwards had more than a doubling of the energy compared to climatology.
Normailsed TC energy
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The plots below show the MJO forecasts. The developments of the tropical cyclones during the week 9-15 March was connected to a very strong MJO event.
MJO forecasts
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3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases