Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

Picture

1. Impact

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-31895231

2. Description of the event

Different estimates on minimum pressure and maximum winds presented at http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

The plots below shows the operational TC plumes (ENS+HRES) for Pam.

3.4 Monthly forecasts

The plots below show the strike probability of tropical storms for the week 9-15 March.

The next set of plots are normalised tropical cyclone energy for the 9-15 March. The forecast from 26 February and onwards had more than a doubling of the energy compared to climatology.

The plots below show the  MJO forecasts. The developments of the tropical cyclones during the week 9-15 March was connected to a very strong MJO event.

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material16-22 March.