Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Ivan
1. Impact
The windstorm Ciara affected large part of north-western Europe on 9 February.
2. Description of the event
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6-hour precipitation forecasts every 12h hour between 7 and 11 February.
The plots below show analyses of z500 and t850 every 12h hour between 7 and 11 February.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show observations of 24-hour maximum wind gusts valid 9 February 00UTC to 10 February 00UTC (first plot) and HRES forecasts valid at the same period. The forecast plots also includes MSLP valid 9 February 12UTC (grey contours).
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI and SOT for wind gusts valid 9 February.
The plots below show the cyclone feature plots valid 9 Feburary 12UTC, with the colouring of the dot marking the maximum wind speed within 300 km.
The plot below shows the evolution of forecast for 24-hour maximum wind gusts valid 9 February 00UTC to 10 February 00UTC for Reading. The plot includes ensemble (blue box-and-whisker), HRES (red dot) and model climate (red box-and-whisker).
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Good early signal
- General overestimation of the wind gust over land (maybe also mean wind)