Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Ivan


 

Discussed in the following Daily reports:



1. Impact

The windstorm Ciara affected large part of north-western Europe on 9 February.


2. Description of the event


The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6-hour precipitation forecasts every 12h hour between 7 and 11 February.

The plots below show analyses of z500 and t850 every 12h hour between 7 and 11 February.


3. Predictability

  

3.1 Data assimilation

 

3.2 HRES

The plots below show observations of 24-hour maximum wind gusts valid 9 February 00UTC to  10 February 00UTC (first plot) and HRES forecasts valid at the same period. The forecast plots also includes MSLP valid 9 February 12UTC (grey contours).



3.3 ENS

The plots below show EFI and SOT for wind gusts valid 9 February.

The plots below show the cyclone feature plots valid 9 Feburary 12UTC, with the colouring of the dot marking the maximum wind speed within 300 km.


The plot below shows the evolution of forecast for  24-hour maximum wind gusts valid 9 February 00UTC to 10 February 00UTC for Reading. The plot includes ensemble (blue box-and-whisker), HRES (red dot) and model climate (red box-and-whisker).


3.4 Monthly forecasts


3.5 Comparison with other centres


4. Experience from general performance/other cases


5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event


6. Additional material