Status:Ongoing analysis Material from:
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/09/01/sc/
Picture
1. Impact
Significant flooding, due to a relatively short-lived burst of convective activity, affected both Copenhagen and Malmo early on the 31 August.
2. Description of the event
Synoptically, there was a striking absence of warm air, indeed the convection appears to have occurred in the vicinity of two occlusions, in a cyclonic upper and surface pattern.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases