Status:Ongoing analysis Material from:

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/09/01/sc/

Picture

1. Impact

Significant flooding, due to a relatively short-lived burst of convective activity, affected both Copenhagen and Malmo early on the 31 August.

2. Description of the event

Synoptically, there was a striking absence of warm air, indeed the convection appears to have occurred in the vicinity of two occlusions, in a cyclonic upper and surface pattern.

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material