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POINT RAINFALL

The point-rainfall is a test product, developed at ECMWF. It is not part of ECMWF's operational suite. It is released on daily basis at 13 UTC but please note that it could be delayed in certain cases. In those cases, a note will appear in the section "NEWS" to let the users know about any delay or problem with the release of this test product. Apologises for the inconveniences that this may cause. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------  NEWS  -----------------------------------------------------------------------------  

 April, 1st: Failure disk. Point-rainfall forecast delayed. 

April, 2nd: Failure of April, 1st solved. Point-rainfall system restored to produce forecasts as usual.  

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Point Rainfall Description

(work in progress)

This test product consists in a statistical post-processing of ECMWF's ensemble (Control Run + 50 Perturbed Forecasts) in order to define probabilities for point-rainfall.

3 month-verification (June, September and December 2016) has already been computed and has been shown the benefits of this method at global scale.

The project aims to compute the 6 and the 12 hourly accumulations for the post-processed rainfall. At the moment just the 12 hourly accumulations are available. In 2017 the 6 hourly accumulations will be computed as well.

Due to the fact that Europe has the biggest dataset of observations for future verification, in order to better take into account the diurnal and nocturnal cycle, the 12 hourly accumulations between 6-18 UTC and 18-6 UTC are considered (since those times define day and night time in Europe).

After this testing period, we aim to proceed with the computations until day 5 for the following intervals:

• for the 12 hourly accumulations, 00-12 UTC, 06-18 UTC, 12-00 UTC, 18-06 UTC;
• for the 6 hourly accumulations, 00-06 UTC, 06-12 UTC, 12-18 UTC, 18-24 UTC;

Point Rainfall Outputs

12 hourly accumulations - 95th percentile

Midnight Run (00 UTC)

Lead time: up to day 5

Legend:

• The values of the Point Rainfall are in mm
• VT = "Verifying Time"

Lead - Time	ECMWF Ensemble	Point - Rainfall (TEST PRODUCT)
00UTC (t+06,t+18)
00UTC (t+18,t+30)
00UTC (t+30,t+42)
00UTC (t+42,t+54)
00UTC (t+54,t+66)
00UTC (t+66,t+78)
00UTC (t+78,t+90)
00UTC (t+90,t+102)
00UTC (t+102,t+114)
00UTC (t+114,t+126)