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 Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Mohammed, Fernando

 

 

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1. Impact


2. Description of the event

3. Predictability

  

3.1 Data assimilation

The plots below show the observation statistics for temperature (left) and wind vector (middle) from dropsondes and surface pressure observations (right).

29 September 00z

29 September 12z

30 September 00z

30 September 12z

1 October 00z

1 October 12z

2 October 00z

2 October 12z


 

3.2 HRES


3.3 ENS


The plots below show the forecast of tropical cyclone activity for 3-5 October, for forecasts with 1 day apart.



3.4 Monthly forecasts


3.5 Comparison with other centres

The plots below shows the tropical cyclone tracks from 29 September 00z for ECMWF (left) and CMC and NCEP (right). The ECMWF ensemble showed two clusters (easterly, westerly) among the tracks. The Canadian ensemble favoured the west cluster while the NCEP ensemble only had members in the western cluster.




4. Experience from general performance/other cases

 

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event


6. Additional material

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