Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, MeteoFrance (via Florence)
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
Picture
1. Impact
2. Description of the event
On the 6 October, l’Hérault in south-western France locally got 260 mm in a couple of hours. Observations and comparison between models from MeteoFrance can be found here: comportement_modeles_pluies_herault_20141006_short.ppt (From MeteoFrance).
The plot below shows the observed 24-hour percipitation from the EFAS network (6 October 06z - 7 October 06z). It seems like we did not get any observations from the narrow band of very high precipitation rates.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots above shows the HRES forecast for 6 Oct 00z (left) and 5 Oct 12z (right). As seen in the report from MeteoFrance, the band of very high precipitation rates are missing.
3.3 ENS
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases