Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Ivan
1. Impact
In the end of August 2022 large parts of Pakistan was hit by extreme rainfall and severe flooding. The extreme rainfall seems also to have hit parts of Afghanistan.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-62722117
2. Description of the event
The flooding seems to be a combination of a very active monsoon season and extreme rainfall 25-28 August.
The plots below show concatenated 6-hour forecasts from HRES for the period 25 August 00UTC to 28 August 00UTC. The two boxes represents a southern region and a northern region that will be evaluated below.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI for 3-day precipitation 25-27 August.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 72-hour precipitation valid 25 August 00UTC - 28 August 00UTC for the southern box. Concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, HRES –red, ENS CF - purple, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – red box-and-whisker. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1200 forecasts. In the distributions the black square represents the median and diamond ensemble mean.
The plot below is the same as above but for the northern box.
