Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
1. Impact
On 8 and 9 August the region around Seoul was hit by extreme rainfall.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-62462275
2. Description of the event
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 7 August 00UTC to 10 August 00UTC, every 12th hour.
The plots below show analyses of z500 and T850 from 6 August to 10 August 00UTC, every 24 hour.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show observations from SYNOP (first plot), concatenated 6-hour forecasts (2nd plot) and HRES forecasts of 24-hour precipitation valid 8 August 00UTC - 9 August 00UTC, from different initial dates. The black 0.5 degree box is centred on Seoul.
The plots below show observations from SYNOP (to be added), concatenated 6-hour forecasts (1nd plot) and HRES forecasts of 72-hour precipitation valid 8 August 00UTC - 11 August 00UTC, from different initial dates. The black 0.5 degree box is centred on Seoul.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI for 1-day precipitation 8 August, from different initial times.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 24-hour precipitation valid 8 August 00UTC - 9 August 00UTC for the box around Seoul. Mean of observations - green hourglass, concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, HRES –red, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – red box-and-whisker. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1200 forecasts.
The plots below show EFI for 3-day precipitation 8-10 August, from different initial times.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below show weekly precipitation anomalies valid 8-14 August from different initial dates.
