Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
1. Impact
While south-eastern Turkey saw extremely hot temperatures (see 202108 - Heatwave - Mediterranean) and wild fires on the second week of August, the northern coast was hit by flooding, with more than 70 fatalities.
https://floodlist.com/asia/turkey-black-sea-floods-update-august-2021
https://floodlist.com/asia/turkey-floods-update-august-2021
2. Description of the event
Daily precipitation totals for most extreme stations in Turkey for 11 and 12 August (not sure if the date is the start or end at accumulation period)
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6-hour forecasts of precipitation from 9 August 00UTC to 13 August 00UTC, every 12 hour.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show SYNOP observations (first plot) and HRES forecasts of 24-hour precipitation valid 10 August 00UTC - 13 August 00UTC, from different initial dates. The black square in the forecast plots indicate location of Bozhurt on the Black Sea coast that got 292 mm (over 2 days). Unfortunately we do not have a good SYNOP coverage in the region.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI for 3-day precipitation 10-12 August, from different initial times.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 72-hour precipitation valid 10 August 00UTC - 13 August 00UTC for Bozhurt. HRES –red, ENS CF – purple, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – red box-and-whisker. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1200 forecasts.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
72-hour precipitation from 10 August 00UTC for models participating in SEE-MHEWS-A. Aladin (left), ICON (middle) and NMMB (right). All models are initialised from ECMWF analysis.
