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 Status:Ongoing analysis Material from:

 

 

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Picture

1. Impact


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45807978

2. Description of the event


The plots below show analyses of MSLP and short forecasts of 6-hour total precipitation covering 7 October 00UTC to 10 October 00UTC, every 12th hour.

The plots below show analyses of z500 (contour) and T850 (shade) covering 7 October 00UTC to 10 October 00UTC, every 12th hour.



3. Predictability

  

3.1 Data assimilation

 

3.2 HRES

The first plots below shows (not yet) observations of 24-hour precipitation 9 October 06z to 10 October 06z and the following plots HRES forecasts from different initial times valid the same time. The plots also includes MSLP valid at 18UTC on 9  October.


3.3 ENS

The plots below show EFI and SOT for 24-hour precipitation (9 October).


3.4 Monthly forecasts


3.5 Comparison with other centres


4. Experience from general performance/other cases

 

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event


6. Additional material

Observations total precipitation in 24 h and radar image: 


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