Page History

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z500 (North Pole projection)

z500 Howmoller diagram

Forecast User Guide: Graphical Output

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Mean-sea-level pressure

2-metre temperature

Total precipitation

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Probability products

z500 Howmoller diagram

Forecast User Guide: Graphical Output

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Extended-range metgram

Probability for lower tercile for 2-metre temperature 

Forecast User Guide: Graphical Output

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Extended-range EFI and SOT for 2-metre temperature

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For discussion around the utility and verification, see:  https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3341www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/158/meteorology/new-product-flag-risk-cold-spells-europe-weeks-ahead

Extended Range Two-dimensional Regime diagram

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Extended Range Weather Regime Frequency histogram

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Composites of 2-metre temperature for the 4 Euro-Atlantic regimes

NAO+, Scandinavian Blocking, NAO-, Atlantic Ridge

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Drivers of predictability

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Wheeler-Hendon MJO diagram

Teleconnection patterns from MJO in ERA-Interim (lag 10 days)

After phase 3 (left) and phase 6 (right)

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Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW)

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Composites of weak and strong Polar Vortex (from Baldwin and Dunkerton, 2001): 

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Plume of 10hPa zonal wind at 60N

Add initial Initial anomalies for SST and snow depth/soil temperature

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