Ensemble mean weekly anomalies

Forecast User Guide: Graphical Output

z500 (North Pole projection)

z500 Howmoller diagram

Forecast User Guide: Graphical Output

Mean-sea-level pressure

2-metre temperature

Total precipitation

Probability products

Extended-range metgram

Probability for lower tercile for 2-metre temperature 

Forecast User Guide: Graphical Output

Extended-range EFI and SOT for 2-metre temperature

Forecast User Guide: Extended Range - CDFs, EFI and SOT

Regime products

Forecast User Guide: Extended Range Regime Charts

For discussion around the utility and verification, see:  https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/158/meteorology/new-product-flag-risk-cold-spells-europe-weeks-ahead

Extended Range Two-dimensional Regime diagram

Extended Range Weather Regime Frequency histogram

Composites of 2-metre temperature for the 4 Euro-Atlantic regimes

NAO+, Scandinavian Blocking, NAO-, Atlantic Ridge

Drivers of predictability

Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) index

Forecast User Guide: Madden-Julian Oscillation Output

Wheeler-Hendon MJO diagram

Teleconnection patterns from MJO in ERA-Interim (lag 10 days)

After phase 3 (left) and phase 6 (right)

Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW)

Composites of weak and strong Polar Vortex (from Baldwin and Dunkerton, 2001): 

Plume of 10hPa zonal wind at 60N

Initial anomalies for SST/soil temperature