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Comment: Confirmed.

Using ECMWF extended-range forecast make a prediction about temperature and rainfall anomalies over Europe for the week starting on 29th June. Assess the model forecast.

Using ECMWF medium-range forecast assess the weather conditions for the 5th July 2015 with respect to any severe convection over Europe:

  • Mark the areas of any lightning activity (in yellow) you expect.
  • Mark the areas of severe (amber), significantly severe (red) and extremely severe (magenta) convection.

Useful links:

ECMWF Forecasts

IFS known issues

Severe event catalogue

Monthly (extended-range) Forecast

...

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title20150626

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includemean_spread_z500_20150705_09.png,ENS_spread_Z500_20150626.png,prob_precip_10_20150705_09.png,prob_precip_1_20150705_09.png,prob_precip_20_20150705_09.png,prob_cape_1_20150705_09.png
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titleENS

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includecl500_20150626_00.png,cl500_20150626_01.png,cl500_20150626_02.png,cl500_20150626_03.png
titleClusters

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includeZ500T850_20150705_09.png,mslp_tp_20150705_09.png
sortname
titleHRES

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HRES convective
includecape_20150626_00.png,cape_20150626_01.png,cape_20150626_02.png,cape_20150626_03.png,cape_20150626_04.png,cape_wind_shear_20150626_00.png,cape_wind_shear_20150626_00.png,cape_wind_shear_20150626_01.png,cape_wind_shear_20150626_01.png,cape_wind_shear_20150626_02.png,cape_wind_shear_20150626_02.png,cape_wind_shear_20150626_03.png,cape_wind_shear_20150626_03.png,cape_wind_shear_20150626_04.png,cape_wind_shear_20150626_04.png,capeshear_20150626_00.png,capeshear_20150626_00.png,capeshear_20150626_0401.png,capecapeshear_wind_shear_20150626_0401.png,capeshear_20150626_0002.png,capeshear_20150626_0002.png,capeshear_20150626_0103.png,capeshear_20150626_0103.png,capeshear_20150626_0204.png,capeshear_20150626_02.png,capeshear_20150626_03.png,capeshear_20150626_03.png,capeshear_20150626_04.png,capeshear_20150626_04.pngtitle_04.png
sortname
titleHRES convective

Ensemble meteograms for: Belgrade(Serbia), Berlin(Germany), Brussels(Belgium), Bucharest(Romania), De Bilt(the Netherlands),

Helsinki(Finland), Luxembourg(Luxembourg), Offenbach(Germany), Paris(France), Prague(Czech Rep.), Reading(UK), Roma(Italy), Vienna(Austria)

ENSgrams_2015062600.pdf


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title20150627

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includeENS_spread_Z500_20150627_00.png,mean_spread_z500_20150705_08.png,prob_precip_10_20150705_08.png,prob_precip_1_20150705_08.png,prob_precip_20_20150705_08.png,prob_cape_1_20150705_08.png
sortname
titleENS

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includecl500_20150627_00.png,cl500_20150627_01.png,cl500_20150627_02.png,cl500_20150627_03.png
sortname
titleClusters

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includeZ500T850_20150705_08.png,mslp_tp_20150705_08.png
sortname
titleHRES

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includecape_20150627_00.png,cape_20150627_01.png,cape_20150627_02.png,cape_20150627_03.png,cape_20150627_04.png,cape_wind_shear_20150627_00.png,cape_wind_shear_20150627_00.png,cape_wind_shear_20150627_01.png,cape_wind_shear_20150627_01.png,cape_wind_shear_20150627_02.png,cape_wind_shear_20150627_02.png,cape_wind_shear_20150627_03.png,cape_wind_shear_20150627_03.png,cape_wind_shear_20150627_04.png,cape_wind_shear_20150627_04.png,capeshear_20150627_00.png,capeshear_20150627_00.png,capeshear_20150627_01.png,capeshear_20150627_01.png,capeshear_20150627_02.png,capeshear_20150627_02.png,capeshear_20150627_03.png,capeshear_20150627_03.png,capeshear_20150627_04.png,capeshear_20150627_04.png,capeshear_20150627_04.png
titleHRES convective
sortname
titleHRES convective

Ensemble meteograms for: Belgrade(Serbia), Berlin(Germany), Brussels(Belgium), Bucharest(Romania), De Bilt(the Netherlands),

Helsinki(Finland), Luxembourg(Luxembourg), Offenbach(Germany), Paris(France), Prague(Czech Rep.), Reading(UK), Roma(Italy), Vienna(Austria)

ENSgrams_2015062700.pdf


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title20150628

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includeENS_spread_Z500_20150628_00.png,mean_spread_z500_20150705_07.png,prob_precip_10_20150705_07.png,prob_precip_1_20150705_07.png,prob_precip_20_20150705_07.png,prob_cape_1_20150705_07.png
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titleENS

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includeplclusters_2015062800-step120-168.1.png,plclusters_2015062812-step120-168.1.png
sortname
titleClusters

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includeZ500T850_20150705_07.png,mslp_tp_20150705_07.png
sortname
titleHRES

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includecape_20150628_00.png,cape_20150628_01.png,cape_20150628_02.png,cape_20150628_03.png,cape_20150628_04.png,cape_wind_shear_20150628_00.png,cape_wind_shear_20150628_00.png,cape_wind_shear_20150628_01.png,cape_wind_shear_20150628_01.png,cape_wind_shear_20150628_02.png,cape_wind_shear_20150628_02.png,cape_wind_shear_20150628_03.png,cape_wind_shear_20150628_03.png,cape_wind_shear_20150628_04.png,cape_wind_shear_20150628_04.png,capeshear_20150628_00.png,capeshear_20150628_00.png,capeshear_20150628_01.png,capeshear_20150628_01.png,capeshear_20150628_02.png,capeshear_20150628_0102.png,capeshear_20150628_0203.png,capeshear_20150628_0203.png,capeshear_20150628_0304.png,capeshear_20150628_03.png,capeshear_20150628_04.png,capeshear_20150628_04.png
titleHRES convective
04.png
sortname
titleHRES convective

Ensemble meteograms for: Belgrade(Serbia), Berlin(Germany), Brussels(Belgium), Bucharest(Romania), De Bilt(the Netherlands),

Helsinki(Finland), Luxembourg(Luxembourg), Offenbach(Germany), Paris(France), Prague(Czech Rep.), Reading(UK), Roma(Italy), Vienna(Austria)

ENSgrams_2015062800.pdf


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title20150629

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includeENS_spread_Z500_20150629_00.png,efi_10fg_20150705_06.png,efi_2t_20150705_06.png,efi_cape_20150705_06.png,efi_capeshear_20150705_06.png,efi_tp_20150705_06.png,mean_spread_z500_20150705_06.png,prob_precip_10_20150705_06.png,prob_precip_1_20150705_06.png,prob_precip_20_20150705_06.png,prob_cape_1_20150705_06.png
sortname
titleENS

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includecl500_20150629_00.png,cl500_20150629_01.png,cl500_20150629_02.png,cl500_20150629_03.png
sortname
titleClusters

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includeZ500T850_20150705_06.png,mslp_tp_20150705_06.png
sortname
titleHRES

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HRES convective
includecape_20150629_00.png,cape_20150629_01.png,cape_20150629_02.png,cape_20150629_03.png,cape_20150629_04.png,cape_wind_shear_20150629_00.png,cape_wind_shear_20150629_00.png,cape_wind_shear_20150629_01.png,cape_wind_shear_20150629_01.png,cape_wind_shear_20150629_02.png,cape_wind_shear_20150629_02.png,cape_wind_shear_20150629_03.png,cape_wind_shear_20150629_03.png,cape_wind_shear_20150629_04.png,cape_wind_shear_20150629_04.png,capeshear_20150629_00.png,capeshear_20150629_00.png,capeshear_20150629_0401.png,capecapeshear_wind_shear_20150629_0401.png,capeshear_20150629_0002.png,capeshear_20150629_0002.png,capeshear_20150629_0103.png,capeshear_20150629_0103.png,capeshear_20150629_0204.png,capeshear_20150629_02.png,capeshear_20150629_03.png,capeshear_20150629_03.png,capeshear_20150629_04.png,capeshear_20150629_04.pngtitle_04.png
sortname
titleHRES convective

Ensemble meteograms for: Belgrade(Serbia), Berlin(Germany), Brussels(Belgium), Bucharest(Romania), De Bilt(the Netherlands),

Helsinki(Finland), Luxembourg(Luxembourg), Offenbach(Germany), Paris(France), Prague(Czech Rep.), Reading(UK), Roma(Italy), Vienna(Austria)

ENSgrams_2015062900.pdf


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title20150630

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includeENS_spread_Z500_20150630_00.png,efi_10fg_20150705_05.png,efi_2t_20150705_05.png,efi_cape_20150705_05.png,efi_capeshear_20150705_05.png,efi_tp_20150705_05.png,mean_spread_z500_20150705_05.png,prob_precip_10_20150705_05.png,prob_precip_1_20150705_05.png,prob_precip_20_20150705_05.png,prob_cape_1_20150705_05.png
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titleENS

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includecl500_20150630_00.png,cl500_20150630_01.png,cl500_20150630_02.png,cl500_20150630_03.png
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titleClusters

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includeZ500T850_20150705_05.png,mslp_tp_20150705_05.png
sortname
titleHRES

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includecape_20150630_00.png,cape_20150630_01.png,cape_20150630_02.png,cape_20150630_03.png,cape_20150630_04.png,cape_20150630_05.png,cape_20150630_06.png,cape_20150630_07.png,cape_20150630_08.png,cape_wind_shear_20150630_00.png,cape_wind_shear_20150630_00.png,cape_wind_shear_20150630_01.png,cape_wind_shear_20150630_01.png,cape_wind_shear_20150630_02.png,cape_wind_shear_20150630_02.png,cape_wind_shear_20150630_03.png,cape_wind_shear_20150630_03.png,cape_wind_shear_20150630_04.png,cape_wind_shear_20150630_04.png,cape_wind_shear_20150630_05.png,cape_wind_shear_20150630_05.png,cape_wind_shear_20150630_06.png,cape_wind_shear_20150630_06.png,cape_wind_shear_20150630_07.png,cape_wind_shear_20150630_07.png,cape_wind_shear_20150630_08.png,cape_wind_shear_20150630_08.png,capeshear_20150630_00.png,capeshear_20150630_00.png,capeshear_20150630_01.png,capeshear_20150630_01.png,capeshear_20150630_02.png,capeshear_20150630_02.png,capeshear_20150630_03.png,capeshear_20150630_03.png,capeshear_20150630_04.png,capeshear_20150630_04.png,capeshear_20150630_05.png,capeshear_20150630_05.png,capeshear_20150630_06.png,capeshear_20150630_06.png,capeshear_20150630_0607.png,capeshear_20150630_07.png,capeshear_20150630_0708.png,capeshear_20150630_08.png,capeshear_20150630_08.png
titleHRES convective
_08.png
sortname
titleHRES convective

Ensemble meteograms for: Belgrade(Serbia), Berlin(Germany), Brussels(Belgium), Bucharest(Romania), De Bilt(the Netherlands),

Helsinki(Finland), Luxembourg(Luxembourg), Offenbach(Germany), Paris(France), Prague(Czech Rep.), Reading(UK), Roma(Italy), Vienna(Austria)

ENSgrams_2015063000.pdf


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title20150701

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includeENS_spread_Z500_20150701_00.png,efi_10fg_20150705_04.png,efi_2t_20150705_04.png,efi_cape_20150705_04.png,efi_capeshear_20150705_04.png,efi_tp_20150705_04.png,mean_spread_z500_20150705_04.png,prob_precip_10_20150705_04.png,prob_precip_1_20150705_04.png,prob_precip_20_20150705_04.png,prob_cape_1_20150705_04.png
sortname
titleENS

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includecl500_20150701_00.png,cl500_20150701_01.png,cl500_20150701_02.png,cl500_20150701_03.png
sortname
titleClusters

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includeZ500T850_20150705_04.png,mslp_tp_20150705_04.png
sortname
titleHRES

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HRES convective
includecape_20150701_00.png,cape_20150701_01.png,cape_20150701_02.png,cape_20150701_03.png,cape_20150701_04.png,cape_20150701_05.png,cape_20150701_06.png,cape_20150701_07.png,cape_20150701_08.png,cape_wind_shear_20150701_00.png,cape_wind_shear_20150701_00.png,cape_wind_shear_20150701_01.png,cape_wind_shear_20150701_01.png,cape_wind_shear_20150701_02.png,cape_wind_shear_20150701_02.png,cape_wind_shear_20150701_03.png,cape_wind_shear_20150701_03.png,cape_wind_shear_20150701_04.png,cape_wind_shear_20150701_04.png,cape_wind_shear_20150701_05.png,cape_wind_shear_20150701_05.png,cape_wind_shear_20150701_06.png,cape_wind_shear_20150701_06.png,cape_wind_shear_20150701_07.png,cape_wind_shear_20150701_07.png,cape_wind_shear_20150701_08.png,cape_wind_shear_20150701_08.png,capeshear_20150701_00.png,capeshear_20150701_00.png,capeshear_20150701_01.png,capeshear_20150701_01.png,capeshear_20150701_02.png,capeshear_20150701_02.png,capeshear_20150701_03.png,capeshear_20150701_0103.png,capeshear_20150701_0104.png,capeshear_20150701_0204.png,capeshear_20150701_0205.png,capeshear_20150701_0305.png,capeshear_20150701_0306.png,capeshear_20150701_0406.png,capeshear_20150701_0407.png,capeshear_20150701_0507.png,capeshear_20150701_0508.png,capeshear_20150701_0608.png,capeshear_20150701_06.png,capeshear_20150701_07.png,capeshear_20150701_07.png,capeshear_20150701_08.png,capeshear_20150701_08.pngtitle
sortname
titleHRES convective

Ensemble meteograms for: Belgrade(Serbia), Berlin(Germany), Brussels(Belgium), Bucharest(Romania), De Bilt(the Netherlands),

Helsinki(Finland), Luxembourg(Luxembourg), Offenbach(Germany), Paris(France), Prague(Czech Rep.), Reading(UK), Roma(Italy), Vienna(Austria)

ENSgrams_2015070100.pdf


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title20150702

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includeefi_10fg_20150705_03.png,efi_2t_20150705_03.png,efi_cape_20150705_03.png,efi_capeshear_20150705_03.png,efi_tp_20150705_03.png,mean_spread_z500_20150705_03.png,prob_precip_10_20150705_03.png,prob_precip_1_20150705_03.png,prob_precip_20_20150705_03.png,prob_cape_1_20150705_03.png
sortname
titleENS

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includecl500_20150702_00.png,cl500_20150702_01.png,cl500_20150702_02.png,cl500_20150702_03.png
sortname
titleClusters

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includeZ500T850_20150705_03.png,mslp_tp_20150705_03.png
sortname
titleHRES

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includecape_20150702_00.png,cape_20150702_01.png,cape_20150702_02.png,cape_20150702_03.png,cape_20150702_04.png,cape_20150702_05.png,cape_20150702_06.png,cape_20150702_07.png,cape_20150702_08.png,cape_wind_shear_20150702_00.png,cape_wind_shear_20150702_00.png,cape_wind_shear_20150702_01.png,cape_wind_shear_20150702_01.png,cape_wind_shear_20150702_02.png,cape_wind_shear_20150702_02.png,cape_wind_shear_20150702_03.png,cape_wind_shear_20150702_03.png,cape_wind_shear_20150702_04.png,cape_wind_shear_20150702_04.png,cape_wind_shear_20150702_05.png,cape_wind_shear_20150702_05.png,cape_wind_shear_20150702_06.png,cape_wind_shear_20150702_06.png,cape_wind_shear_20150702_07.png,cape_wind_shear_20150702_07.png,cape_wind_shear_20150702_08.png,cape_wind_shear_20150702_08.png,capeshear_20150702_00.png,capeshear_20150702_00.png,capeshear_20150702_01.png,capeshear_20150702_01.png,capeshear_20150702_02.png,capeshear_20150702_02.png,capeshear_20150702_03.png,capeshear_20150702_03.png,capeshear_20150702_04.png,capeshear_20150702_04.png,capeshear_20150702_05.png,capeshear_20150702_05.png,capeshear_20150702_06.png,capeshear_20150702_06.png,capeshear_20150702_0607.png,capeshear_20150702_07.png,capeshear_20150702_0708.png,capeshear_20150702_08.png,capeshear_20150702_08.png
titleHRES convective
_08.png
sortname
titleHRES convective

Ensemble meteograms for: Belgrade(Serbia), Berlin(Germany), Brussels(Belgium), Bucharest(Romania), De Bilt(the Netherlands),

Helsinki(Finland), Luxembourg(Luxembourg), Offenbach(Germany), Paris(France), Prague(Czech Rep.), Reading(UK), Roma(Italy), Vienna(Austria)

ENSgrams_2015070200.pdf


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title20150703

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includeefi_10fg_20150705_02.png,efi_2t_20150705_02.png,efi_cape_20150705_02.png,efi_capeshear_20150705_02.png,efi_tp_20150705_02.png,mean_spread_z500_20150705_02.png,prob_precip_10_20150705_02.png,prob_precip_1_20150705_02.png,prob_precip_20_20150705_02.png,prob_cape_1_20150705_02.png
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titleENS

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includeZ500T850_20150705_02.png,mslp_tp_20150705_02.png
sortname
titleHRES

Gallery
HRES convective
includecape_20150703_00.png,cape_20150703_01.png,cape_20150703_02.png,cape_20150703_03.png,cape_20150703_04.png,cape_20150703_05.png,cape_20150703_06.png,cape_20150703_07.png,cape_20150703_08.png,cape_wind_shear_20150703_00.png,cape_wind_shear_20150703_00.png,cape_wind_shear_20150703_01.png,cape_wind_shear_20150703_01.png,cape_wind_shear_20150703_02.png,cape_wind_shear_20150703_02.png,cape_wind_shear_20150703_03.png,cape_wind_shear_20150703_03.png,cape_wind_shear_20150703_04.png,cape_wind_shear_20150703_04.png,cape_wind_shear_20150703_05.png,cape_wind_shear_20150703_05.png,cape_wind_shear_20150703_06.png,cape_wind_shear_20150703_06.png,cape_wind_shear_20150703_07.png,cape_wind_shear_20150703_07.png,cape_wind_shear_20150703_08.png,cape_wind_shear_20150703_08.png,capeshear_20150703_00.png,capeshear_20150703_00.png,capeshear_20150703_01.png,capeshear_20150703_01.png,capeshear_20150703_02.png,capeshear_20150703_02.png,capeshear_20150703_03.png,capeshear_20150703_0103.png,capeshear_20150703_0104.png,capeshear_20150703_0204.png,capeshear_20150703_0205.png,capeshear_20150703_0305.png,capeshear_20150703_0306.png,capeshear_20150703_0406.png,capeshear_20150703_0407.png,capeshear_20150703_0507.png,capeshear_20150703_0508.png,capeshear_20150703_0608.png,capeshear_20150703_06.png,capeshear_20150703_07.png,capeshear_20150703_07.png,capeshear_20150703_08.png,capeshear_20150703_08.pngtitle
sortname
titleHRES convective

Ensemble meteograms for: Belgrade(Serbia), Berlin(Germany), Brussels(Belgium), Bucharest(Romania), De Bilt(the Netherlands),

Helsinki(Finland), Luxembourg(Luxembourg), Offenbach(Germany), Paris(France), Prague(Czech Rep.), Reading(UK), Roma(Italy), Vienna(Austria)

ENSgrams_2015070300.pdf


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title20150704

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includeefi_10fg_20150705_01.png,efi_2t_20150705_01.png,efi_cape_20150705_01.png,efi_capeshear_20150705_01.png,efi_tp_20150705_01.png,mean_spread_z500_20150705_01.png,prob_precip_10_20150705_01.png,prob_precip_20_20150705_01.png,prob_cape_1_20150705_01.png
sortname
titleENS

Gallery
includeZ500T850_20150705_01.png,mslp_tp_20150705_01.png
sortname
titleHRES

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includecape_20150704_00.png,cape_20150704_01.png,cape_20150704_02.png,cape_20150704_03.png,cape_20150704_04.png,cape_20150704_05.png,cape_20150704_06.png,cape_20150704_07.png,cape_20150704_08.png,cape_wind_shear_20150704_00.png,cape_wind_shear_20150704_00.png,cape_wind_shear_20150704_01.png,cape_wind_shear_20150704_01.png,cape_wind_shear_20150704_02.png,cape_wind_shear_20150704_02.png,cape_wind_shear_20150704_03.png,cape_wind_shear_20150704_03.png,cape_wind_shear_20150704_04.png,cape_wind_shear_20150704_04.png,cape_wind_shear_20150704_05.png,cape_wind_shear_20150704_05.png,cape_wind_shear_20150704_06.png,cape_wind_shear_20150704_06.png,cape_wind_shear_20150704_07.png,cape_wind_shear_20150704_07.png,cape_wind_shear_20150704_08.png,cape_wind_shear_20150704_08.png,capeshear_20150704_00.png,capeshear_20150704_00.png,capeshear_20150704_01.png,capeshear_20150704_01.png,capeshear_20150704_02.png,capeshear_20150704_02.png,capeshear_20150704_03.png,capeshear_20150704_03.png,capeshear_20150704_04.png,capeshear_20150704_04.png,capeshear_20150704_05.png,capeshear_20150704_05.png,capeshear_20150704_06.png,capeshear_20150704_06.png,capeshear_20150704_0607.png,capeshear_20150704_07.png,capeshear_20150704_0708.png,capeshear_20150704_08.png,capeshear_20150704_08.png
titleHRES convective
_08.png
sortname
titleHRES convective

Ensemble meteograms for: Belgrade(Serbia), Berlin(Germany), Brussels(Belgium), Bucharest(Romania), De Bilt(the Netherlands),

Helsinki(Finland), Luxembourg(Luxembourg), Offenbach(Germany), Paris(France), Prague(Czech Rep.), Reading(UK), Roma(Italy), Vienna(Austria)

ENSgrams_2015070400.pdf


Expand
title20150705

Gallery
includeefi_10fg_20150705_00.png,efi_2t_20150705_00.png,efi_cape_20150705_00.png,efi_capeshear_20150705_00.png,efi_tp_20150705_00.png,mean_spread_z500_20150705_00.png,prob_precip_10_20150705_00.png,prob_precip_20_20150705_00.png,prob_cape_1_20150705_00.png
sortname
titleENS

Gallery
includeZ500T850_20150705_00.png,mslp_tp_20150705_00.png
sortname
titleHRES

Gallery
includecape_20150705_00.png,cape_20150705_01.png,cape_20150705_02.png,cape_20150705_03.png,cape_20150705_04.png,cape_20150705_05.png,cape_20150705_06.png,cape_20150705_07.png,cape_20150705_08.png,cape_wind_shear_20150705_00.png,cape_wind_shear_20150705_00.png,cape_wind_shear_20150705_01.png,cape_wind_shear_20150705_01.png,cape_wind_shear_20150705_02.png,cape_wind_shear_20150705_02.png,cape_wind_shear_20150705_03.png,cape_wind_shear_20150705_03.png,cape_wind_shear_20150705_04.png,cape_wind_shear_20150705_04.png,cape_wind_shear_20150705_05.png,cape_wind_shear_20150705_05.png,cape_wind_shear_20150705_06.png,cape_wind_shear_20150705_06.png,cape_wind_shear_20150705_07.png,cape_wind_shear_20150705_07.png,cape_wind_shear_20150705_08.png,cape_wind_shear_20150705_08.png,capeshear_20150705_00.png,capeshear_20150705_00.png,capeshear_20150705_01.png,capeshear_20150705_01.png,capeshear_20150705_0802.png,capeshear_20150705_0002.png,capeshear_20150705_0003.png,capeshear_20150705_0103.png,capeshear_20150705_0104.png,capeshear_20150705_0204.png,capeshear_20150705_0205.png,capeshear_20150705_0305.png,capeshear_20150705_0306.png,capeshear_20150705_0406.png,capeshear_20150705_0407.png,capeshear_20150705_0507.png,capeshear_20150705_0508.png,capeshear_20150705_06.png,capeshear_20150705_06.png,capeshear_20150705_07.png,capeshear_20150705_07.png,capeshear_20150705_08.png,capeshear_20150705_08.png
sortname
titleHRES convective
_20150705_08.png
sortname
titleHRES convective

Ensemble meteograms for: Belgrade(Serbia), Berlin(Germany), Brussels(Belgium), Bucharest(Romania), De Bilt(the Netherlands),

Helsinki(Finland), Luxembourg(Luxembourg), Offenbach(Germany), Paris(France), Prague(Czech Rep.), Reading(UK), Roma(Italy), Vienna(Austria)

ENSgrams_2015070500.pdf


Expand
titleAnalysis

Gallery
includeESTOFEX_20150705.png,Ligtning_20150705.png,Rainfall_20150705.png,Sat_20150705_anim.gif
sortname

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