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Using ECMWF extended-range forecast make a prediction about temperature and rainfall anomalies over Europe for the week starting on 29th June. Assess the model forecast.

Using ECMWF medium-range forecast assess the weather conditions for the 5th July 2015 with respect to any severe convection over Europe:

Mark the areas of any lightning activity (in yellow) you expect.
Mark the areas of severe (amber), significantly severe (red) and extremely severe (magenta) convection.

Useful links:

ECMWF Forecasts

IFS known issues

Severe event catalogue

Monthly (extended-range) Forecast

Medium-range Forecast

Ensemble meteograms for: Belgrade(Serbia), Berlin(Germany), Brussels(Belgium), Bucharest(Romania), De Bilt(the Netherlands),

Helsinki(Finland), Luxembourg(Luxembourg), Offenbach(Germany), Paris(France), Prague(Czech Rep.), Reading(UK), Roma(Italy), Vienna(Austria)

ENSgrams_2015062600.pdf

Ensemble meteograms for: Belgrade(Serbia), Berlin(Germany), Brussels(Belgium), Bucharest(Romania), De Bilt(the Netherlands),

Helsinki(Finland), Luxembourg(Luxembourg), Offenbach(Germany), Paris(France), Prague(Czech Rep.), Reading(UK), Roma(Italy), Vienna(Austria)

ENSgrams_2015062700.pdf

Ensemble meteograms for: Belgrade(Serbia), Berlin(Germany), Brussels(Belgium), Bucharest(Romania), De Bilt(the Netherlands),

Helsinki(Finland), Luxembourg(Luxembourg), Offenbach(Germany), Paris(France), Prague(Czech Rep.), Reading(UK), Roma(Italy), Vienna(Austria)

ENSgrams_2015062800.pdf

Ensemble meteograms for: Belgrade(Serbia), Berlin(Germany), Brussels(Belgium), Bucharest(Romania), De Bilt(the Netherlands),

Helsinki(Finland), Luxembourg(Luxembourg), Offenbach(Germany), Paris(France), Prague(Czech Rep.), Reading(UK), Roma(Italy), Vienna(Austria)

ENSgrams_2015062900.pdf

Ensemble meteograms for: Belgrade(Serbia), Berlin(Germany), Brussels(Belgium), Bucharest(Romania), De Bilt(the Netherlands),

Helsinki(Finland), Luxembourg(Luxembourg), Offenbach(Germany), Paris(France), Prague(Czech Rep.), Reading(UK), Roma(Italy), Vienna(Austria)

ENSgrams_2015063000.pdf

Ensemble meteograms for: Belgrade(Serbia), Berlin(Germany), Brussels(Belgium), Bucharest(Romania), De Bilt(the Netherlands),

Helsinki(Finland), Luxembourg(Luxembourg), Offenbach(Germany), Paris(France), Prague(Czech Rep.), Reading(UK), Roma(Italy), Vienna(Austria)

ENSgrams_2015070100.pdf

Ensemble meteograms for: Belgrade(Serbia), Berlin(Germany), Brussels(Belgium), Bucharest(Romania), De Bilt(the Netherlands),

Helsinki(Finland), Luxembourg(Luxembourg), Offenbach(Germany), Paris(France), Prague(Czech Rep.), Reading(UK), Roma(Italy), Vienna(Austria)

ENSgrams_2015070200.pdf

Ensemble meteograms for: Belgrade(Serbia), Berlin(Germany), Brussels(Belgium), Bucharest(Romania), De Bilt(the Netherlands),

Helsinki(Finland), Luxembourg(Luxembourg), Offenbach(Germany), Paris(France), Prague(Czech Rep.), Reading(UK), Roma(Italy), Vienna(Austria)

ENSgrams_2015070300.pdf

Ensemble meteograms for: Belgrade(Serbia), Berlin(Germany), Brussels(Belgium), Bucharest(Romania), De Bilt(the Netherlands),

Helsinki(Finland), Luxembourg(Luxembourg), Offenbach(Germany), Paris(France), Prague(Czech Rep.), Reading(UK), Roma(Italy), Vienna(Austria)

ENSgrams_2015070400.pdf

Ensemble meteograms for: Belgrade(Serbia), Berlin(Germany), Brussels(Belgium), Bucharest(Romania), De Bilt(the Netherlands),

Helsinki(Finland), Luxembourg(Luxembourg), Offenbach(Germany), Paris(France), Prague(Czech Rep.), Reading(UK), Roma(Italy), Vienna(Austria)

ENSgrams_2015070500.pdf