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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
Picture
1. Impact
The tropical cyclone Pam hit the Vanuatu Islands on 13 March 2015 with a devastating effect.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Pam
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-31895231
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2. Description of the event
The cyclone formed March 6 east of the Solomon Islands and was classified as a tropical storm on 9 March. The formation is believed to been caused by a strong MJO with a westerly wind burst in the western tropical Pacific. At the same time 3 other cyclones formed (Olwyn west of Australia, Nathan north-east of Australia and Bavi north of the equator).
We are currently not receiving minimum pressure estimates from Best Track. But the plot below show different Different estimates on minimum pressure and maximum winds presented at http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu (including Best Track). The minimum pressure from Best Track was 915 hPa and winds of 145 kt.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
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Gallery includeLabel tc_act1 sort namecomment title Strike probability for tropical storms
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Gallery includeLabel tc_act2 sort namecomment title Normailsed TC energy
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Gallery includeLabel mjo sort namecomment title MJO forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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