Scorecard for IFS cycle 38r1 ENS

Comparison of scores of model cycle 38r1 (combination of research experiments and the current e-suite) and cycle 37r3 (the current operational model) verified by the respective analyses at 00UTC for 12 September 2011 to 16 December 2011 and 9 April 2012 to 2 May 2012 (64 cases in total).

 

Score card provides a quick visual overview over the performance of the experiment scores compared to control. It is a simplified summary of verify error plots of various domains, scores, parameters etc.

Each error plot is converted into a sequence of symbols (e.g. ▼▾▾░░░░▴▲▲) where each symbol indicates for given time step whether or not the experiment is significantly better or worse than the control.

Symbol legend: for a given forecast step... (d: score difference, s: confidence interval width)
▲ Cy38r1 far better than Cy37r3 statistically significant (the confidence bar above zero by more than its height )(d/s>3)
▴ Cy38r1 better than Cy37r3 statistically significant (d/s≥1)
░ Cy38r1 better than Cy37r3, yet not statistically significant (d/s≥0.5)
░ not really any difference between Cy37r3 and Cy38r1
░ Cy38r1 worse than Cy37r3l, yet not statistically significant (d/s≤-0.5)
▾ Cy38r1 worse than Cy37r3 statistically significant (d/s≤-1)
▼ Cy38r1 far worse than Cy37r3 statistically significant (the confidence bar below zero by more than its height) (d/s<-3)