Storm Desmond
Impact of starting date and lead time
Experiments for Storm Desmond are initialized from 5 dates: 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 December 2015. The major events related to the storm (high precipitation, wind gusts) happened on 5 December. Consequently, forecast lead times of 96-120 hours, 72-96 hours, 48-72 hours, 24-48 hours, 0-24 hours are studied, respectively.
The PDF documents below are prepared for 9 variables: mean sea level pressure, 2-meter temperature, 24-hour precipitation, 3-hourly 10-meter wind gust, 850 hPa temperature, 700 hPa relative humidity, 500 hPa geopotential, 250 hPa and 100 hPa wind fields. The figures of experiments are organized in 5 columns according to the 5 starting dates and 9 rows for the 3-hourly forecast outputs between 00 UTC on 5 and 00 UTC on 6 December. The only exception is the precipitation where the daily amounts are located in one row. Both the corresponding ERA-Interim and ERA5 fields are displayed as reference (please note that the ERA-Interim re-analyses are available with 6-hour frequency).
Please click on the PDF documents to open them and to see the individual pictures (note that most documents have 2 pages).
Mean sea level pressure
| 2-meter temperature
| 24-hour precipitation
|
3-hourly 10-meter wind gust
| Temperature at 850 hPa
| Relative humidity at 700 hPa
|
Geopotential at 500 hPa
| Wind field at 250 hPa
| Wind field at 100 hPa
|
Impact of initial condition
Experiments for Storm Desmond are initialized from ERA-Interim and ERA5 re-analysis datasets for 3 and 4 December 2015. The major events related to the storm (high precipitation, wind gusts) happened on 5 December. The forecasts are initialized on 4 December 2015 and the major events related to the storm (high precipitation, wind gusts) happened on 5 December. So the 24-48 hours forecast lead times are studied.
First, we can make an inter-comparison between the initial conditions provided by ERA-Interim and ERA5 on the native ERA-Interim resolution (T255L91, approximately 80 km grid distance and 91 vertical levels). The figures are available in PS format for 7 variables: soil temperature on level 2, surface pressure, model orography and temperature, specific humidity, wind field, cloud cover on model levels. The PS documents are structured in 2 left panels for the outputs of the forecasts initialized from ERA-Interim and ERA5 and one right panel for the difference between the two fields.
Soil temperature on level 2
| Surface pressure
| Model orography
| |
Temperature at model level 91
| Specific humidity at model level 91
| Wind field at model level 91
| Cloud cover at model level 91
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The PDF documents below are prepared to check the forecast results for 9 variables: mean sea level pressure, 2-meter temperature, 24-hour precipitation, 3-hourly 10-meter wind gust, 850 hPa temperature, 700 hPa relative humidity, 500 hPa geopotential, 250 hPa and 100 hPa wind fields. The figures of experiments are organized in 2 columns according to the 2 initialization conditions and 9 rows for the 3-hourly forecast outputs between 00 UTC on 5 and 00 UTC on 6 December. The only exception is the precipitation where the daily amounts are located in one row. Both the corresponding ERA-Interim and ERA5 fields are displayed as reference (please note that the ERA-Interim re-analyses are available with 6-hour frequency).
Please click on the PDF documents to open them and to see the individual pictures (note that most documents have 2 pages).
Mean sea level pressure
| 2-meter temperature
| 24-hour precipitation
| 3-hourly 10-meter wind gust |
|
Temperature at 850 hPa
| Relative humidity at 700 hPa
| Geopotential at 500 hPa
| Wind field at 250 hPa
| Wind field at 100 hPa
|
Impact of horizontal resolution
Experiments for Storm Desmond are conducted on 3 resolutions: T255L91, T639L137 and T1279L137 (approximately 80, 32, 16 km grid distance with 91, 137 and 137 vertical levels, respectively). The forecasts are initialized on 4 December 2015 and the major events related to the storm (high precipitation, wind gusts) happened on 5 December. So the 24-48 hours forecast lead times are studied.
The PDF documents below are prepared for 9 variables: mean sea level pressure, 2-meter temperature, 24-hour precipitation, 3-hourly 10-meter wind gust, 850 hPa temperature, 700 hPa relative humidity, 500 hPa geopotential, 250 hPa and 100 hPa wind fields. The figures of experiments are organized in 3 columns according to the 3 resolutions and 9 rows for the 3-hourly forecast outputs between 00 UTC on 5 and 00 UTC on 6 December. The only exception is the precipitation where the daily amounts are located in one row. Both the corresponding ERA-Interim and ERA5 fields are displayed as reference (please note that the ERA-Interim re-analyses are available with 6-hour frequency).
Please click on the PDF documents to open them and to see the individual pictures (note that most documents have 2 pages).
Mean sea level pressure
| 2-meter temperature
| 24-hour precipitation
| 3-hourly 10-meter wind gust | |
Temperature at 850 hPa
| Relative humidity at 700 hPa
| Geopotential at 500 hPa
| Wind field at 250 hPa | Wind field at 100 hPa
|