201507 - Heatwave - Western Europe

 Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/06/22/sc/

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/06/23/sc/

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/06/24/sc/

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/06/25/sc/

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/06/26/sc/

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/06/29/sc/

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/06/29/sc/

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/07/01/sc/

Picture

1. Impact

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33341325

On 1 July, the July temperature record for UK was set at Heathrow with 36.7C.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-33324881

2. Description of the event

The plots below shows the evolution of z500 and t850 and analyses spanning from 26 June to ...

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

The plot below shows the EFI for the 1-day period starting on Monday 29 June. A large part of Western Europe was covered by very high EFI values.

The plot below shows the Ensgram for Paris, also initialised 29 June 00UTC. The first part of the high-wave showed a peak on 1 June. The next plot shows the EFI for 1 June.

To see the evolution of the 2-metre temperature forecasts for 12UTC on the 1 June in Paris, the plot below shows all ensemble forecasts issued for this day (including monthly forecasts) and HRES forecasts (red dots). The percentiles for the ERA-Interim climatology is included as the grey bar on the 1 June.

3.4 Monthly forecasts

Forecasts valid Week 27

The plot below shows ensemble forecasts for week 27 averaged in the box 40-50N, 0-10E

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material