Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Mohammed, Fernando, Ervin
1. Impact
The hurricane Matthew hit south-western Haiti on 4 October and killed more than 900 people. The hurricane later hit Barbados (6 October) and stoke along the coast of Florida and South Carolina on 7 and 8 October, killing 16 people.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Matthew
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-37570409
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-37602431
2. Description of the event
The tropical cyclone formed north of Venezuela on 28 October. The cyclone originated from a westwrad propagating tropical wave that on 22 October was located on the coast of Africa.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
The plots below show the observation statistics for temperature (left) and wind vector (middle) from dropsondes and surface pressure observations (right).
29 September 00z
29 September 12z
30 September 00z
30 September 12z
1 October 00z
1 October 12z
2 October 00z
2 October 12z
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below show the forecast of tropical cyclone activity for 3-5 October, for forecasts with 1 day apart.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
The plots below shows the tropical cyclone tracks from 29 September 00z for ECMWF (left) and CMC and NCEP (right). The ECMWF ensemble showed two clusters (easterly, westerly) among the tracks. The Canadian ensemble favoured the west cluster while the NCEP ensemble only had members in the western cluster.
4. Experience from general performance/other cases