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Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Tim

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

2017-10-10

2017-10-12

2017-10-13

2017-10-16

2017-10-17

Picture

1. Impact

2. Description of the event

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

The plots below show the 24-hour maximum wind gusts for 16 October and the MSLP valid at 12UTC on 16 October from HRES forecasts. The first plot shows observations of 24-hour maximum wind gusts.

3.3 ENS

The plots below show the tropical cyclone product for Ophelia.

Forecast User > 201710 - Tropical cyclone - Ophelia > tc_1600.png

The plot below shows the evolution of the forecasts for 24-hour maximum wind gusts on 16 October in Cork.

Forecast User > 201710 - Tropical cyclone - Ophelia > wg_cork1_20171016.ps.gif

1. Impact

2. Description of the event

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material