Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Ervin, Linus

Picture

1. Impact

On 29 and 30 April central US was hit by severe convection. There was an intense, slow moving cyclone that causes this. There was several severe weather reports including tornadoes, and at least 5 people died.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-weather-idUKKBN17V070

2. Description of the event

The plots below shows the reports of severe weather on 29 April (left) and 30 April (right). Both plots are valid from 12z on the day until 12z on the day after.

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material