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Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

Picture

1. Impact

2. Description of the event

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

The plots below show 24-hour accumulated precipitation for 14 March and the MSLP valid 12z the same day from HRES with different initial times.

Forecast User > 201703 - Snowfall - US eastcoast > precip_20170314_0_0_1_1_ecmf.ps.gif

3.3 ENS

The plots below show EFI and SOT for precipitation for 14 March.

Forecast User > 201703 - Snowfall - US eastcoast > efi_tp_1.ps.gif

Forecast User > 201703 - Snowfall - US eastcoast > tp_nyc1_20170314_ec.ps.gif

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

The plots below show 24-hour precipitation for 14 March and MSLP valid 12z from ECMWF (left) and NCEP (middle) and UKMO (right).

+24h

Forecast User > 201703 - Snowfall - US eastcoast > precip_20170313_0_24_1_1_ecmf.ps.gif

+36h

Forecast User > 201703 - Snowfall - US eastcoast > precip_20170312_12_36_1_1_ecmf.ps.gif

+48h

Forecast User > 201703 - Snowfall - US eastcoast > precip_20170312_0_48_1_1_ecmf.ps.gif

+60h

Forecast User > 201703 - Snowfall - US eastcoast > precip_20170311_12_60_1_1_ecmf.ps.gif

+72h

Forecast User > 201703 - Snowfall - US eastcoast > precip_20170311_0_72_1_1_ecmf.ps.gif

+84h

Forecast User > 201703 - Snowfall - US eastcoast > precip_20170310_12_84_1_1_ecmf.ps.gif

+96h

Forecast User > 201703 - Snowfall - US eastcoast > precip_20170310_0_96_1_1_ecmf.ps.gif

+108h

Forecast User > 201703 - Snowfall - US eastcoast > precip_20170309_12_108_1_1_ecmf.ps.gif

+120h

Forecast User > 201703 - Snowfall - US eastcoast > precip_20170309_0_120_1_1_ecmf.ps.gif

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material