Status:Ongoing analysis Material from:

1. Impact

During the week of 21-27 November southern Europe was hit but several episodes of severe rainfall. The worst affected area was north-western Italy.

2. Description of the event

The sequence below show 12-hour precipitation forecasts and MSLP ranging from 18-25 November. The worst rainfall events were on 21-22 November and 24 November.

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

The plots below show the analysis of z500 and t850 for 24 November 12z (left) and the forecast from 6.5 days before (right).

The plots below show 24-hour precipitation for 24 November 06z to 25 November 06z from HRES.

3.3 ENS

The plots below show EFI and SOT for precipitation valid 24 November.

3.4 Monthly forecasts

The plots below show weekly precipitation anomalies for 21-27 November.

3.5 Comparison with other centres

3.6 EFAS

Flash flood warnings on 24 November:

Flood warnings in forecast from 25 November:

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material