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Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

Picture

1. Impact

Storm Frank hit Scotland on the 29 and 30th of December. The heavy rains associated with Frank that fell overnight 29th to the 30th December lead to new maximum peak river levels recorded on the Dee (Grampian).

https://floodforecastingservice.net/2016/02/19/storm-frank-how-was-the-medium-range-flood-guidance/comment-page-1/#comment-2258

2. Description of the event

The plots below show the MSLP (contour) and wind speed at 200 hPa in the analyses from 28 December to 31 December.

Forecast User > 201512 - Rainfall - British Isles - Part 3 > wind_20151228_0_0.ps.gif

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

Forecast User > 201512 - Rainfall - British Isles - Part 3 > PPT24_obs_Global_2015123006.ps.gif

3.3 ENS

Forecast User > 201512 - Rainfall - British Isles - Part 3 > efi_tp_1.ps.gif

1. Impact

2. Description of the event

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material