Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Fernando

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/10/23/sc/

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/10/26/sc/

Picture

1. Impact

Late on 23 October TC Patricia made landfall on the west-coast of Mexico as a category 5 cyclone. In the tropical cyclone database, this was the strongest on record for the western hemisphere with 879 hPa as central pressure. Fortunately there was no reported causalities from the cyclone.

2. Description of the event

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

Evolution of the central pressure in the analysis (solid) and Best Track estimates.

Observation statistics for wind vector departures for one analysis:

Observation statistics for temperature departures for one analysis:

Observation statistics for ASCAT for one analysis:

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

Lagrangian TC product from Patricia:

TC strike probability valid 22 to 24 October:

Strike probability within a radius of 150 km around the observed point 23 Oct 18z:

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material