The course is suitable for those who have a genuine interest in ECMWF forecasting products and want to exploit fully the potential of these products in their daily duties, whether they are producing forecast bulletins or taking decisions that are affected by weather phenomena.

The course is a mixture of standard classroom lectures and practical activities where real weather cases are analysed in details and attendees are expected to report on at the end of the training week. Networking among the attendees is encouraged by allocating time for the participants to present their work and share their previous experience with ECMWF products.

The aim of the course is to provide the students with background knowledge to help them to make an informed use of ECMWF NWP products and to introduce students to novel products

At the end of the course, the participants will be able:

  • to master to use of ensemble forecasts
  • to understand potentials and weaknesses of NWP products
  • to use novel forecast products
  • to use ECMWF products for forecast guidance
  • to make use of ECMWF products in decision making

The course is assessed by means of an online survey which allows the participants to include their feedback and suggestions for improvements. The learning outcomes are assessed separately using a self-evaluation method.

 

Pre-course programme

A list of pre-course activities is indicated below. Please note that these activities are integral part of the course and by completing them you will be able to get the most benefit out of the training week.

  • Introduce yourself to the other course participants and to the lecturers (click here to go to the forum)
  • Prepare a poster (click here for guidance, maximum size for poster: A1)
  • Listen to the slidecast "Ensemble forecasting" and (if you cannot play it, please download the MP4 file (right click and choose 'Save link as' ) and play it locally with Windows media player, or quicktime or VLC (free software))
  • Listen to the slidecast "Understanding the model climate" and (if you cannot play it, please download the MP4 file (right click and choose 'Save link as' ) and play it locally with Windows media player, or quicktime or VLC (free software))
  • Go trough the Practical activity: forecast process .....(click here for guidance and document uploading facility)
  • Browse through the list of suggested readings (see 'Suggested readings' in the list 'Resources' panel below)
  • Listen to the slidecast (click here to start the MP4, if it does not start read instructions below in the 'Resources' panel)

 

timetable

 


Go to home page

 

Take the survey!

Survey OP-I, OP-II and OP-III 2015

 

 

26th - 30th January 2015

2nd - 6th February 2015

 

OP-III photo will be available

SLIDECASTs

if you cannot play it, please download the MP4 file (right click and choose 'Save link as' ) and play it locally with Windows media player, or quicktime or VLC (free software)

ecCharts

Please click here to find out how to get a userid and password

 

Laboratories: severe weather case studies

 

In this interactive session we will focus on apparent jumps, between runs, in ECMWF forecasts and how forecasters can perhaps deal with them. Examples will be included. The point will also be made that a sound forecasting system has to exhibit 'jumpy behaviour' from time to time.

Floods in Italy: how could ECMWF products be used to help the forecasters?

Find case study resources here

The students will be asked to construct forecast guidance for a cycle race around South Wales, for a summer-time situation, using a wide range of ECMWF products, that correspond to lead times between 45 days and 1 day.

Very mild weather conditions built over Europe during the second and third week of December. Will it stay mild between Christmas and the New Year or there will be a change in the weather conditions across Europe? What is the chance of snow and cold weather for  New Year's Eve? The area of interest is the Balkans and in particular Bulgaria. The main focus will be on the use of ENS to assess the forecast uncertainty and to provide the risk of hazardous weather. What types of hazardous/adverse weather can you foresee?
A wide range of forecast products will be used from ECMWF high-resolution forecast (HRES), ensemble forecast (ENS) including monthly forecast to assess the forecast uncertainty and analyse all possible scenarios and their probability. In the end we will see the outcome and compare it with the forecast.

Find case study resources here

 Focusing on using a wide range of ECMWF products, here is your challenge:  plan the optimum ship route in TC conditions in the NE Atlantic.

 The Christmas of 2013 was very mild in southern Scandinavia and windy in western Europe, caused by a strong positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). People started to wonder whether there would be any winter at all. In this case we will look for a possible transition to cold conditions in the long-range forecasts (Part 1). When a possible transition approaching we will look into the possible scenarios for large-scale flow (Part 2). We will study the forecasts of a cyclone over southern Scandinavia (Part 3) and the connecting snowfall (Part 4). In the last part (Part 5), the forecasts will be evaluated and the limitations of the forecast discussed. The aim of the case study is to familiarise with different forecast products from ECMWF and also discuss the limitations of the forecasts

Find case study resources here

 

Lectures

You can download lectures from here:

  • Recording of the lectures are available here. Click on the title to get the mp4 (if you cannot play it, please download the MP4 file by right clicking and choosing 'Save link as' . Play it locally with Windows media player, or quicktime or VLC (free software))
  • click on 'pdf' to get the file in pdf 
Lecturer
Title
Lecturer
Title

A. Ghelli

Introducing ECMWF (pdf)

L. Isaksen

Data assimilation (pdf)

P. Bechtold

Model Physics (pdf)

F. Prates

 Forecasting tropical cyclones in the medium range (pdf)

J. Bidlot

Wave forecasting (pdf)

D. Richardson

   Ensemble forecasting (pdf)

M. Dahoui

Use of satellite observations (pdf)

C. SahinIntroduction to ecCharts (pdf)

L. Ferranti

I. Tsonevsky

Forecasting extreme events (pdf)

R. ForbesClouds and precipitation (pdf)

L. Magnuson

Understanding the model climate (pdf)

T. HewsonExtratropical Cyclones (pdf)T. HewsonInstructor lead activity: Dealing with jumps in the forecast (pdf)

 

 

 

EUMETCAL e-training module on verification:

The link below will take you to an e-training module on verification methods. There are four parts to it: Introduction, Verification of continuous variables, Verification of categorical forecasts and Verification of probability and ensemble forecasts. This module will help you to learn about verification techniques for deterministic and probability forecast. Try to complete all the parts and in case you run out of time look at the Introduction, Verification of categorical forecasts and Verification of probability and ensemble forecasts. There will be a verification session during the training week when verification techniques will be discussed starting from the exercises you have done in the module and your practical verification activity:

VERIFICATION METHODS

The posters presented by the students are here!