Status:Ongoing analysis Material from:

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/09/01/sc/

Picture

1. Impact

Significant flooding, due to a relatively short-lived burst of convective activity, affected both Copenhagen and Malmo early on the 31 August.

2. Description of the event

Synoptically, there was a striking absence of warm air, indeed the convection appears to have occurred in the vicinity of two occlusions, in a cyclonic upper and surface pattern.

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

The plots below shows the accumulated rainfall between 00UTC and 12UTC on the 31 August. The fist plot is the observed rainfall.

31 August 00z

ECMWF (32 km)

HIRLAM-DMI (11 km?)

COSMO-LEPS (10 km?)

COSMO-DE (2.8 km)

30 August 12z

ECMWF

HIRLAM-DMI

COSMO-LEPS

COSMO-DE

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material