Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, ..

1. Impact

On 17-21 October a cyclone named Babet caused widespread impact from Portugal up to Denmark/Norway. Among the worst affected areas were Scotland with extreme rainfall causing 7 fatalities. In eastern Denmark record breaking storm surge was observed in the strong easterly wind north of the cyclone.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Babet

2. Description of the event

The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 17 October 00UTC to 22 October 00UTC, every 12th hour.

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

The plots below show 24-hour precipitation (19 October 00UTC - 20 October 00UTC) in observations (first plot) concatenated short forecasts (second plot) and ENS control forecasts with different lead times. The box marks 0.5x0.5 degree centred over Angus, Scotland.

3.3 ENS

The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 1-day precipitation (19 October 00UTC - 20 October 00UTC)  from different initial dates.

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material