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Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

1. Impact

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Mocha

2. Description of the event

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

The plots below show the tropical cyclone track for the operational ECMWF forecasts from 14 May 00UTC (first plot) to 8 May 00UTC (last plot). The symbols shows the position on 14 May 12UTC. HRES (red), ENS CF (blue), ENS PF (grey) and BestTrack (black).

Forecast User > 202305 - Tropical Cyclone - Mocha > track_0001_01B_20230514_00_vd20230514_12.ps.gif

Same as above but for 48r1 e-suite.

Forecast User > 202305 - Tropical Cyclone - Mocha > track_0078_01B_20230514_00_vd20230514_12.ps.gif

Central pressure (top), maximum wind speed (middle) and propagation speed (bottom) for HRES (red), ENS CF (blue), ENS PF (grey) and BestTrack (black) from o-suite.

Same as above but for e-suite.

3.4 Monthly forecasts

The plots below show the weekly tropical storm probability 8-16 May, with different initial dates.

The plots below show the weekly tropical storm activity anomaly 8-16 May, with different initial dates.

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material