Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/02/10/sc/

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/02/12/sc/

1. Impact

On the 12 February a storm hit Ireland, Wales and western England.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26166796

2. Description of the event

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

Dalmatian plots for maximum wind speed at ~1km around a cyclonic feature.

Extreme index forecasts for maximum wind gusts valid on the 12 February.

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event