Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Ivan, Rebecca

1. Impact

On 22 February the tropical cyclone Emnati made landfall on Madagascar, on a similar location as TC Batsirai earlier in the same month.

2. Description of the event

The plots below show mslp from analysis and 6-hour precipitation forecasts from 21 February 12UTC to 24 February 00UTC.

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

The plot below shows surface winds from a SAR image from Sentinel (left) and a 2-hour (middle) and 14-hour (right) HRES forecasts. The data is valid for 22 February 02UTC.

The plot below infrared images from a Meteosat channel 9 (left) and a 2-hour (middle) and 14-hour (right) HRES forecasts. The data is valid for 22 February 02UTC.

3.3 ENS

The plots below show the tropical cyclone track for the operational ECMWF forecasts from 22 February 00UTC (first plot) to 13 February 00UTC (last plot). The symbols shows the position on 22 February 12UTC. HRES (red), ENS CF (blue), ENS PF (grey) and BestTrack (black).

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

• 202202 - Tropical Cyclone - Batsirai

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material