Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Mohamed

1. Impact

In the end of May Canterbury in New Zeeland was hit by severe rainfall resulting in flooding.

2. Description of the event

The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6-hour forecasts of precipitation from 28 May 00UTC to 31 May 12UTC, every 12 hour.

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

The plots below show HRES forecasts of 72-hour precipitation valid 29-31 May, from different initial dates.

3.3 ENS

The plots below show EFI for 3-day precipitation valid 29-31 May, from different initial times.

3.4 Monthly forecasts

The plots below shows the weekly anomaly of precipitation for the week 24-30 May. Note that the event happened in the end of the week, and the first plot below was issued almost one week before the event.

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material