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For evaluation of the outcome, see: 202101 - Snowfall - Sweden

For "Known Forecast Issues", see: Known IFS forecasting issues

Observations from Stockholm Arlanda and Sundsvall (from ogimet.com)

Short visibility forecast

(See issue M9)

Forecasts from 11 January 12UTC+12 for visibility (left), snowfall rate (middle) and total precipitation rate (right)

Training > 5. Outcome and Discussions > vis_1112_12.PNG

Metars from 3 airports along the Swedish east-coast:

METAR/TAF for ESNN at 23:20 11/01/2021 UTCSundsvall-Harnosand Flygplats

METAR ESNN 112320Z AUTO 10020G33KT 0500
           R16/P2000N R34/P2000N SN
           VV007 M00/M00 Q0988=

METAR/TAF for ESNK at 23:20 11/01/2021 UTCKramfors Flygplats

METAR ESNK 112320Z AUTO 11016KT 070V130
           0350 R17/1200D R35/1400D +SN
           VV006 M00/M00 Q0992=

METAR/TAF for ESNO at 23:20 11/01/2021 UTCOrnskoldsvik Airport

METAR ESNO 112320Z AUTO 09021G31KT 1000
           R12/P2000N R30/P2000N -SN
           FEW002/// SCT005///
           BKN010/// M01/M02 Q0997=

EcPoints

Probability for >20 mm/12h in raw ensemble (left) and EcPoints (right).

Training > 5. Outcome and Discussions > ecpoint_20__1112_12.PNG

CDF for precipitation for Stockholm (left) and northern point (right)

Snow accumulation

Known Forecast Issues S2 and S3.

The plot below shows time-series of various parameters for a point in Southern Sweden in the forecast from 11 January 12UTC and the map for precipitation type for step 12.

Training > 5. Outcome and Discussions > snowacc_vxo_1112_12.PNG

2-metre temperature

To be added.