Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Esti

1. Impact

2. Description of the event

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

Probabilities of exceeding >80 mm at different lead times: 24h, 48h, 72h, 96h, 120h, 144h, 168h

EFI for 24-h Precipitation, valid on day 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 10-15

EFI for Water vapour flux, valid on day 4,  7 and 10-15

3.4 Monthly forecasts

Extended range anomaly for precipitation, valid for the week 19-25 October and forecast for week 1, 1.5, 2 and 2.5

3.5 Comparison with other centres

HRES and HARMONIE-AROME maximum wind gusts for T+48h compared to observations

HRES and HARMONIE-AROME 24- precipitation for T+48h compared to observations

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material

EFAS forecast on 19th October 2020 at 00 UTC run.