Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus

1. Impact

Tropical cyclone Isaias affected the Caribbean and the U.S east-coast in the beginning of August.

2. Description of the event

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

The plots below show tracks from HRES (red), ensemble control (blue) and ensemble member (grey) and intensity and positions on 4 August 12UTC (symbols). The BestTrack positions and intensities are in circles for every 6th hour, which an hourglass marking 4 August 12UTC. The forecasts shown are from 4 August 00UTC (first plot) back to 25 July 00UTC (last plot), issued every 24 hour. Note that the cyclone had a slow bias in predicting the position on 4 August 12UTC.

3.4 Monthly forecasts

The plots below show the weekly strike probability valid 3-9 August.

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material