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Status: Finalised Material from: Linus

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

1. Impact

Around 17 May south-eastern Europe experienced a heat-wave, with temperatures reaching above 40 degrees.

2. Description of the event

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

The plots below show EFI and SOT for 2-metre maximum temperature on 17 May.

Forecast User > 202005 - Heatwave - SE Europe > efi_2tmax_20200517_1.ps.gif

The plot below shows forecast evolution for 2-metre maximum temperature for Nicosia (Cyprus) on 17 May. Ensemble distribution (blue box-and-whisker), HRES (red dot) and model climate distribution (red box-and-whisker).

Forecast User > 202005 - Heatwave - SE Europe > mx2t6_Nicosia1.0_20200517.ps.gif

3.4 Monthly forecasts

The plot below shows weekly temperature anomalies for 11-17 May in extended-range forecasts.

Forecast User > 202005 - Heatwave - SE Europe > mnth_2t_1.png

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

Very good extended-range signal for the event