Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus

1. Impact

2. Description of the event

The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6-hour precipitation forecasts from 14 April 00UTC to 20 April 00UTC every 24h.

The plots below show analyses of z500 (contour) and t850 (shade) from 14 April 00UTC to 20 April 00UTC every 24h.

The plot below shows time-series of observed 2-metre temperature from Polarstern.

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

The plot below shows observation statistics for sfc-850hPa temperature from Polarstern radiosondes.

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

The plots below show the EFI and SOT for 2-metre temperature valid 19 April.

The plot below shows evolution of 2-metre temperature forecasts for the position of Polarstern (84.3N, 14.75E), valid for 19 April 12UTC. The plot includes ENS forecasts (Blue box-and-whiskers), HRES (red dot) and model climate (red box-and-whisker). The observation from Polarstern was -0.1C. The probability boundaries for the box and whiskers are (1-99, 10-90, 25-75 and median as dot).

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material