Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Fernando

1. Impact

Tropical cyclone Fani made landfall near Puri in India on 3 May. Before the landfall extensive preparations have been made and more than one million people were evacuated.

2. Description of the event

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

The plots below show position and intensity in analysis (circles) and BestTrack (hourglass). Plots for o-suite (left) and e-suite (right).

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

The plots below show the tracks (ensemble -grey, best track - black), position and intensity on 3 May 00UTC (ensemble - squares, best track - hourglass) in forecasts from 3 May (first plot) to 23 April (last plot). The cyclone was recognised as a tropical cyclone on 27 April.

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material