Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Jonny, Ervin
Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
Picture
On 15 March the tropical cyclone Idai made landfall in Mozambique causing many fatalities. The cyclone formed from a tropical depression that already had brought fatal floodings to Mozambique and Malawi the week before. During the second landfall a storm surge hit the area of Beira together with extreme wind and extensive rainfall leading to further flooding inland.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Idai
The plots below show MSLP and 6-hour precipitation in analyses from 00UTC spanning 1 March to 16 March.The tropical depression made a first landfall on Mozambique on 4 March, entered sea again on 9 March, intensified on 10 March and made landfall on 15 March.
The plots below show the tracks (ensemble -grey, best track - black), position and intensity on 14 March 12UTC (ensemble - squares, best track - hourglass) in forecasts from 14 March (first plot) to 7 March (last plot). The cyclone was recognised as a tropical cyclone on 10 March. Before that, the ensemble predicted the re-emerging over the Indian ocean but had large uncertainties regarding the westward turn.
The plots below show the tropical cyclone strike probability for the week of 11 March to 17 March. The forecast from 4 March had an elevated probability for cyclone activity between Africa and Madagascar.