Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Tim

1. Impact

On 16 October the extra-tropical extension of the tropical cyclone Ophelia hit south-western Ireland. The 10-minute mean wind reached of 31 m/s at Roches Point, off Cork, and gusts of up to 43 m/s over land. 3 people were killed by the storm.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/storm-ophelia-record-26m-wave-at-kinsale-gas-platform-off-south-coast-1.3262198?mode=amp

2. Description of the event

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

The plots below show the 24-hour maximum wind gusts for 16 October and the MSLP valid at 12UTC on 16 October from HRES forecasts. The first plot shows observations of 24-hour maximum wind gusts.

3.3 ENS

The plots below show the tropical cyclone product for Ophelia.

The plots below show EFI and SOT for 24-hour maximum wind gusts valid 16 October.

The plot below shows the evolution of the forecasts for 24-hour maximum wind gusts on 16 October in Cork.

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

• The risk well captured 6 days in advance
• The magnitude of wind gusts over land well predicted

6. Additional material