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Status:Ongoing analysis Material from:

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

Picture

1. Impact

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45807978

2. Description of the event

The plots below show analyses of MSLP and short forecasts of 6-hour total precipitation covering 7 October 00UTC to 10 October 00UTC, every 12th hour.

Forecast User > 201810 - Rainfall - Spain > an_MSL_20181007_0.ps.gif

The plots below show analyses of z500 (contour) and T850 (shade) covering 7 October 00UTC to 10 October 00UTC, every 12th hour.

Forecast User > 201810 - Rainfall - Spain > an_Z500_20181007_0.ps.gif

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

The first plots below shows (not yet) observations of 24-hour precipitation 9 October 06z to 10 October 06z and the following plots HRES forecasts from different initial times valid the same time. The plots also includes MSLP valid at 18UTC on 9 October.

Forecast User > 201810 - Rainfall - Spain > precip_20181009_0_6_1_1_ecmf.ps.gif

3.3 ENS

The plots below show EFI and SOT for 24-hour precipitation (9 October).

Forecast User > 201810 - Rainfall - Spain > efi_tp_20181009_1.ps.gif

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material