Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
The super-typhoon Mangkhut made landfall on the Philippines on 14 September and hit China on 15 September.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-45543664
The plot below shows the evolution of central pressure in Best Track (dots) and LWDA analysis (solid line).
The plots below show the tracks (ensemble -grey, best track - black), position and intensity on 14 September 12UTC (ensemble - squares, best track - hourglass) in forecasts from 13 September (first plot) to 4 September (last plot). Early forecasts (up to 8 September) predicted a more northerly path . Later forecasts were more correct but still a northerly shift at the longitude of the Philippines. The forecast from 12 September had a plume centred on the landfall point, but instead got a southerly shift of the China landfall.
The series of plot shows the same as above but with the symbols representing the position and intensity on 16 September 00UTC, just before the landfall on China.
The plots below show weekly strike probability (left) and normalised accumulated cyclone energy from extended-range forecasts, valid for 10-16 September.The forecast from 30 August did not capture the increased activity in the West Pacific, but rather predicted lower than normal.
