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Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

Picture

1. Impact

On 4 September the super-typhoon Jebi hit Japan as the worst typhoon in the past 25 years. The cyclone made landfall close to Osaka.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-45406857

2. Description of the event

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

The plots below show the tracks (ensemble -grey, best track - black), position and intensity on 4 September 00UTC (ensemble - squares, best track - hourglass) in forecasts from 4 September (first plot) to 23 August (last plot). Note that the cyclone formed on 28 August.

Forecast User > 201809 - Tropical Cyclone - JEBI > track_2018.JEBI_0001_2018090400.ps.gif

3.4 Monthly forecasts

The plots below show weekly strike probability (left) and normalised accumulated cyclone energy from extended-range forecasts.

Forecast User > 201809 - Tropical Cyclone - JEBI > mnth1.png

Forecast User > 201809 - Tropical Cyclone - JEBI > mnth2.png

Forecast User > 201809 - Tropical Cyclone - JEBI > mnth3.png

Forecast User > 201809 - Tropical Cyclone - JEBI > mnth4.png

Forecast User > 201809 - Tropical Cyclone - JEBI > mnth5.png

Forecast User > 201809 - Tropical Cyclone - JEBI > mnth6.png

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material