Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus

Picture

1. Impact

During 26-27(?) heavy rainfall affected Greece, with flash floods in many places.

http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2018/06/26/greece-weather-floods-mandra-videos/

2. Description of the event

The plots below show mslp and 6-hour precipitation in short forecasts with valid time starting from 25 June 12UTC and every 12h over thereafter.

The plots below show the same as above but for z500 and t850.

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

The plot below shows the evolution of ensemble (blue) and HRES (red dot) forecasts for 3-day (26-28 June) precipitation over Greece (37N-42N, 20E-24E). I strong signal appeared in the ensemble from 19 June onwards for a very wet period.

3.4 Monthly forecasts

The plots below show precipitation anomalies for 25 June to 1 July from forecasts with different initial times.

The plots below shows the same as above but for z500.

3.5 Comparison with other centres

3.6 EFAS

The plot below shows the EFAS forecast for a river in central Greece, in the forecast initialised just before the rainfall event.

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material