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 Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus

 

 

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1. Impact


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38038992

2. Description of the event

The plots below show analyses of extra-tropical cyclone features.



The plots below show a sequence of satellite images from yr.no starting from 19 November 18z to 21 November 00z.


The plot below shows the observed 24-hour precipitation for 19 November 06z to 20 November 06z.


3. Predictability

  

3.1 Data assimilation

 

3.2 HRES

24-hour maximum winds gusts (20 November) and MSLP valid 20 November 12z from o-suite:

24-hour maximum winds gusts (20 November) and MSLP valid 20 November 12z from e-suite:

24-hour precipitation (19 Nov 06z - 20 Nov 06z) from o-suite:

24-hour precipitation (19 Nov 06z - 20 Nov 06z) from e-suite:



3.3 ENS

EFI and SOT for wind gusts for 20 November from o-suite.

EFI and SOT for wind gusts for 20 November from e-suite.

EFI and SOT for 3-day precipitation (19-21 November) from o-suite:

EFI and SOT for 3-day precipitation (19-21 November) from e-suite:


Cyclone feature plots valid 20 November 00z:




3.4 Monthly forecasts


3.5 Comparison with other centres


4. Experience from general performance/other cases

 

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event


6. Additional material

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