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 Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Mohammed, Fernando

 

 

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1. Impact


2. Description of the event

3. Predictability

  

3.1 Data assimilation

The plots below show the observation statistics for temperature (left) and wind vector (middle) from dropsondes and surface pressure observations (right).

29 September 00z

29 September 12z

30 September 00z

30 September 12z

1 October 00z

1 October 12z

2 October 00z

2 October 12z


 

3.2 HRES


3.3 ENS


The plots below show the forecast of tropical cyclone activity for 3-5 October, for forecasts with 1 day apart.



3.4 Monthly forecasts


3.5 Comparison with other centres


4. Experience from general performance/other cases

 

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event


6. Additional material

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