Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
Picture
1. Impact
On 2 September the tropical cyclone Hermine made landfall on the north-western side of Florida.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-37248359
2. Description of the event
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below show the tropical cyclone activity for 31 August to 1 September. Already in the earliest forecast (from 24 August) the probability for a tropical cyclone in the northern part of Gulf of Mexico was above 20% and in the forecast from 25 the probability increased to above 50%. However, in the subsequent forecasts the probability decreased again. This change was connected to the whether the cyclone should form already in the Atlantic, which it did not. But later Hermine formed in the same tropical depression.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases